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Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to 4.03% as recession fears outweigh inflation fears. Yesterday's Liberation Day festivities in the Rose Garden set off a freefall in stock prices on increasing fears of a trade war. The worst-case scenario is a recession if high tariff rates stick, leading to a slowdown in business and consumer spending that cause layoffs. We raised our odds of a stagflation/recession scenario from 35% to 45% on Monday.
While the labor market is in a good place now, it has the potential to deteriorate quickly. Here's the latest look at how the economy is performing just as it is starting to get hit by Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 and the DOGE layoffs:
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