Unsettling Economic Policy Conditions Starting To Unsettle The Economy

Today's batch of economic indicators shows a few signs that Trump Turmoil 2.0 started to weigh on the economy during March. That’s the message from the month's national ISM manufacturing purchasing managers survey. February's construction spending report shows that this sector is losing its upward momentum, for now. On the other hand, February's JOLTS release shows that the labor market remained robust that month with no signs of increasing job losses in the federal government, so far.

The new alternative Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, adjusted for gold imports, shows that real GDP fell 1.4% (saar) during Q1. Real consumer spending is down 0.6%, which we think was mostly a weather-related decline. We expect a rebound in consumer spending during March and April.