LIBERATION WEEK: March 31-April 4

Trump's Reign of Tariffs will likely dominate the economic week ahead. The big event will occur on April 2 (dubbed "Liberation Day" by President Donald Trump). That's when the administration will impose reciprocal tariffs on a number of America's trading partners. However, it's very likely that tariff announcements will continue after that date, as bilateral negotiations are teased out and sectoral tariffs come into place later on. Thus, business and consumer uncertainty might be even higher after this week.

In any event, several key labor market indicators for March are due out. We expect this to be the first "clean" read on the Trump 2.0 jobs market, since bad weather in January and February prevented some employees from working (chart). So Friday's nonfarm payroll report may show a healthy rebound. We think monthly payroll gains will be far lower in Q2 and Q3, however, as businesses pause hiring and as the migrant labor force perhaps shrinks."