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The stock market rally of the past two days faded today. The S&P 500 fell -1.1%, just shy of correction territory. Even Nvidia fell 4.3%, even though the company announced new chips and a strategic collaboration with GM today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has been hovering around 4.30% since late February. The price of gold rose to another record high (chart).
We suspect that the stock market hasn't fully discounted what's coming on April 2, when the US will tag America's trading partners with effective tariff rates equal to the average tariff that each country imposes on the goods it imports (or should import) from the United States plus the US Commerce Department's estimate of the implicit tariff imposed by its nontariff barriers to its markets. The US will impose on each country a reciprocal tariff reflecting this effective tariff rate.
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