ECONOMIC WEEK: March 3–7

February's batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5, the weakest since the summer of 2024 (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24% on Friday from a peak of 4.81% in January.

We think much of this soft patch was caused by January's ice patch, which was the coldest January since 1988. If so, then February's batch of economic indicators is likely to be mostly stronger than expected.