In 10 Charts: Consumer Confidence & Jobs

The stock market sold off this morning on a decline in February's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), confirming a similar decline in February's Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which was reported at the end of last week. The CSI survey tends to be more affected by inflation, while the CCI survey is more affected by employment. The former was weak this month on concerns about rising inflation, while the latter was weak mostly on expectations of fewer job openings in six months. Both are very volatile on a monthly basis. Both may be reflecting extreme partisanship, with Democrats much less confident than Republicans, in our opinion. Let's review the CCI data in 10 charts:

(1) In February, there was a big drop in the expectations component of the CCI. The present situation component of the CCI dipped but remained relatively high. We think that the present situation component is a better indicator of the economy's current performance than is the expectations component, which is more volatile as well.