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Today's CPI report for November matched expectations. The CME FedWatch tool shows 95% odds that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps next week, and the Fed doesn't like to surprise market expectations.
The Nasdaq front-ran our forecast to reach 20,000 by mid-2025 by reaching that milestone today (chart). Now we are aiming for 22,000 by mid-2025. Our yearend target of 6100 for the S&P 500 may also soon be exceeded ahead of schedule. Perversely, the big gains piling up in stock portfolios could trigger a significant pullback in January as investors rebalance in 2025 rather than now to defer capital gains taxes.
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