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There have been numerous misleading economic indicators signaling a recession since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in early 2022. Among the worst have been the inverting yield curve and then the disinverting yield curve. And, of course, there's the falling Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which is long overdue for a product recall.
On the other hand, S&P 500 operating forward earnings has been a remarkably useful guide that kept us from falling into the recession trap. This series is the time-weighted average of industry analysts' consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share during the current year and coming year. Consider the following:
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