The US Economy Is Roaring!

Last Thursday on September 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released several very significant upward revisions to real GDP, real GDI, personal income, and personal saving. Collectively, they blew away the hard landing scenario. They didn't leave much if any room for the soft landing scenario either. They suggest that productivity growth will be revised higher and unit labor cost inflation will be revised lower.

These revisions show that real GDP has been rising every quarter but one since the pandemic lockdown recession during H1-2020 (chart). The technical recession during H1-2022 has been revised away. Q2's level of real GDP was raised by 1.3% to a record high. More importantly, the level of real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) was revised up by 3.6%. The significant tightening of monetary policy from March 2022 through August 2024 did not cause a recession. There has been no landing, and certainly no hard landing.