The Economic Week Ahead: September 16-20

The main event this week is the FOMC meeting (Wed). The Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR), but with a heated debate over whether it will be 25bps or 50bps. Perhaps more important than the size of the first cut will be the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which will provide Fed officials' updated forecasts for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the FFR. The big questions are where they believe the so-called neutral rate of interest lies, and how quickly do they want to get there.

There is a lot of economic data due out this week as well. We think the economy is on stronger footing than many of the die-hard hard-landers who are calling for rapid rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected indicators could put upward pressure on the bond yield. Let's review what we're watching this week: