The Economic Week Ahead: August 12-16

The week ahead is packed with economic reports. In addition, more Fed talking heads are likely to opine on last week's financial markets volatility and the monetary policy outlook. As market prognosticators debate the speed and size of coming interest rate cuts, the most important indicators are likely to be those closely tied to the Fed's dual mandate. Here's what we're watching this week:

(1) CPI. July's CPI (Wed) is likely to show less progress in moderating inflation than over the past couple of months. The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model forecasts that the headline and core CPI rose 3.01% and 3.33% y/y (0.24% and 0.27% m/m) last month. We don't see this as a sign that inflation is no longer moderating because low monthly readings in the back half of 2023 make the y/y comparisons harder this year (chart).