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We still expect that the Fed's preferred core PCED inflation measure will fall to the Fed's 2.0% target by the end of this year (chart). It was already down to 2.8% y/y in April. May's number will be released on Friday, and should show further progress.
We don't see the Fed cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) this year, which should keep the 10-year yield above 4.00% in the second half of 2024. Here's our take on the latest relevant developments and Fedspeak:
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