Multi-Family Housing Glut?

Today's batch of economic indicators was on the weak side. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell deeper into negative territory today (chart). Does this suggest that the odds of a recession are increasing? Nope: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model is now projecting 3.0% real growth in Q2, down from 3.1% on June 18.

The stock market held its ground: The S&P 500 briefly crossed 5,500 for the first time in its history, before Nvidia's -3.5% breather helped drag the index a bit lower into the close. The 10-year Treasury bond yield remained around 4.25% as investors concluded that the Fed's higher-for-longer interest rate policy remained intact.