The Economic Week Ahead: June 17-21

The economic week ahead will include lots of economic indicators, which on balance should show that the pace of economic activity improved during May. June's regional business surveys for the New York and Philly Fed districts will also be released. The BIG number should be initial unemployment claims. Here's our take:

(1) Unemployment claims. Jobless claims (Thu) jumped over the past three weeks through the week of June 8 (chart). Continuing claims also jumped during the June 1 week. Both did the same when comparing seasonally unadjusted data this year to last year. Thursday's report should be an important one in determining whether the labor market is or is not getting weaker and could move the bond yield lower or higher. We are in the latter camp.