'Knock On Wood'

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at Stanford University today about the economy and monetary policy. He said, "I think we've gotten to what is, knock on wood, a pretty good place." He added, "We're using our tools to try to bring inflation down the rest of the way to 2%, while all the while keeping the economy strong as well."

Today's data releases were mixed. According to ADP, private payrolls gained 184,000 during March—more than expected. The March NM-PMI was a bit weaker than expected at 51.4 (chart). But the new orders (54.4) and production (57.4) components remained strong. The employment index (48.5) has been relatively weak in recent months, but that doesn't square with the ongoing strength in services payrolls.