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Tuesday's CPI and today's PPI for January were higher than expected. Thursday's retail sales and today's housing starts for last month were both weaker than expected. The new year is starting with hotter inflation and colder economic growth.
Nevertheless, these hot flashes and chills should be temporary. In our opinion, inflation continues to moderate and the economy remains resilient. The latter forecast is confirmed by today's 2.9% estimate for real GDP growth during Q1 by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. Let's have a closer look at today's numbers:
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