The US Economy Remains Bullish

One day, there will be a recession. It just didn't happen in 2022 or 2023, as was widely predicted. The best growth rates in real GDP over this two-year period occurred during the final two quarters of 2023 at 4.9% and 3.3% (chart). Real GDP rose 2.5% during 2023 following 1.9% during 2022. (Several economists got the magnitudes right, but the signs wrong.)

We are expecting real GDP to grow between 2% and 3% this year (chart). If we are wrong, we are inclined to believe that it will be stronger rather than weaker as a result of better-than-expected productivity growth.