Prepare For A Recession & Debt Crisis In 2024

While almost everyone (except us) has been waiting for a recession and debt crisis in the United States, we've observed that this calamity has been unfolding in China since early 2023 and will probably continue and worsen in 2024. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis, when the US debt crisis went global, China's debt crisis should remain local. However, China's recession is weighing on global economic growth and commodity prices. It is also helping to bring inflation down faster than widely expected around the world. It's doing so in the US, thus reducing the likelihood of a Fed-engineered recession.

This is all happening because the world's second largest economic engine is sputtering as a result of the bursting of China's property bubble. The negative wealth effect of falling property prices and stock prices is depressing Chinese consumer spending. Consider the following: