Dow's New High Should Be Confirmed By Transports In Early 2024

Real GDP is now estimated to be up 2.7% (saar) during Q4, according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. The estimate was raised from 2.6% following the release of today's housing starts report for November. Residential starts increased 14.8% last month to 1.56 million (saar), the highest in six months. Single-family starts jumped 18.0%, while starts of multifamily projects increased 6.9% (chart).

Housing's hard landing is probably over now that mortgage rates have tumbled by more than 100bps since early November (chart). The rolling recession in the industry is turning into a rolling recover. That obviously increases the odds that the economy-wide Godot recession will be a no-show in 2024, as it was in 2022 and 2023. So stock prices rallied again today.