The Economic Week Ahead: November 27 - December 1

The BIG number of the week is likely to be October's personal consumption expenditures deflator (Thu). It should confirm the ongoing moderation in consumer price inflation shown by October's CPI and PPI reports (chart). The core PPI final demand for personal consumption was down to just 2.5% y/y in October. It does not include rent inflation, which is still high but heading lower.

The rolling recession in the goods sector is showing signs of bottoming. The latest evidence is that November's average of the three available regional business surveys (for NY, Philly & KC) turned slightly positive for the first time since July 2022 (chart). That augurs well for November's national M-PMI (Fri). Also out this week are the regional business surveys for Dallas (Mon) and Richmond (Tue).