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The 10-year US Treasury bond yield continued to stabilize just below 5.00% today as it has been doing since October 26. Notwithstanding the worsening conflict in the Middle East, the price of oil fell by a couple of bucks. So stock traders decided to buy some stocks, driving the S&P 500 up by 1.2%. That still leaves it well below its 200-day moving average and down 9.2% from its July 31 high for this year (chart).
The US Treasury announced its marketable borrowing estimates for Q4-2023 ($776 billion) & Q1-2024 ($816 billion) at 3:00 pm today. The bond market didn't flinch much, suggesting that perhaps a yield around 5.00% is high enough to attract buyers. That's even though the Treasury expects to need $1.6 trillion over the next six months.
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