The Economic Week Ahead: October 23-27

This week should be another disappointing one for the hard-landers. That's been true all year and especially during Q3, when the economic surprises were mostly to the upside as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (chart). Q3's real GDP (Thu) is tracking at 5.4% (saar) for the quarter according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow.

The labor market indicators are likely to show continued strength. October's jobs-plentiful series in the consumer confidence survey (Tue) probably stayed high (chart). It is highly inversely correlated with the jobs-hard-to-get series, which closely tracks the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims.