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Today's September reports for retail sales and industrial production were better than expected. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows real GDP grew 5.4% (saar) during Q3, up from 5.1% on October 10. Leading the estimate higher is real consumer spending with a 4.1% increase (table).
That's good news for the stock market. It confirms our forecast that S&P 500 earnings per share probably rose to a record high during Q3. The economy has been resilient because consumers have continued to spend despite fears that they were running out of excess saving accumulated during the pandemic. However, they haven't run out of job openings.
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