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The FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released today shows that the median forecast of the federal funds rate (FFR) for 2023 is 5.6%, unchanged from June’s SEP (table). The 2024 forecast was raised to 5.1% from 4.6%. As we expected, the FOMC’s message is that the FFR might be lowered next year by 50bps rather than 100bps.
The latest SEP shows headline PCED inflation continuing to moderate from 3.3% this year to 2.5% next year, 2.2% in 2025, and 2.0% in 2026. That’s nearly identical to the path projected in June’s SEP.
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