Market Call: September Isn't Over Just Yet

September is usually a nice month weather-wise. After the dog days of summer, the temperature starts to cool with occasional hot spells reminiscent of the summer. On the other hand, the month can be a rough one for stocks. The S&P 500 is down 1.3% mtd so far. That's not so bad. Then again, the month's worst performing sector is Information Technology, down 4.3% (table below). The S&P 500 has been hovering around its 50-day moving average for the past couple of weeks (chart).

The stock market might continue to drift sideways for a few more weeks. There are lots of uncertainties. How long will the UAW strike last? Will there be a government shutdown at the end of the month? How much higher is the price of oil likely to go? Will the 10-year Treasury bond yield break out above 4.35%? If the Fed doesn't hike the federal funds rate next week, will Fed officials suggest that they might hike in November? Might their Dot Plot show that there may be fewer rate cuts next year than investors expect?