The Economic Week Ahead: August 14-18

This week is packed with July's composite cyclical indicator releases which should ease fears that economic growth might be too strong given that real GDP is tracking at 4.1% (saar) for Q3 currently. That's quite a reversal from a few months ago when there were widespread fears of a recession. Consider the following:

(1) The YRI Earned Income Proxy for private-industry wages and salaries in personal income rose just 0.2% in July the same increase as in the CPI. So real wages were flat last month suggesting that inflation-adjusted retail sales (Tue) was also flat (chart). Industrial production (Wed) was probably also flat in July since aggregate weekly hours in manufacturing was flat.