The Economic Week Ahead: July 10-14

This week is jampacked with June's inflation indicators. On balance, they should show that inflation continues to moderate. On Monday, the FRBNY survey of consumer inflationary expectations should decline from May's 4.1% for the one-year-ahead and 3.0% for the three-years-ahead readings. The price of gasoline has a big impact on these expectations, and it was down 26.5% y/y during the four weeks through July 3 (chart).

On Wednesday, the CPI inflation rate should show more moderation in the rent index. It was 8.7% y/y in May, The Zillow index was down to 4.8% in May and the Apartment List index was down to 1.7% in April. The 3-month annualized CPI rent inflation rates suggest that the y/y comparisons have peaked (chart).