The Economic Week Ahead: June 20-23

It's a short and light week for economic data. We'll be focusing on May's Composite Cyclical Indicators (Thu). The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) is the best monthly indicator of the business cycle. It tracks the y/y growth rate of real GDP very closely (chart). It was up 1.7% y/y during April, while real GDP rose 1.6% during Q1. We are expecting a modest m/m increase in May's CEI. Payroll employment rose solidly during the month. Real personal income excluding transfer payments and real business sales edged up slightly last month. Only industrial production was down a bit.

There's no recession in the CEI, but the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) has been signaling a recession for a while It peaked at a record high during December 2021 and fell 8.7% during April. It anticipated the past eight recessions by 12 months on average (chart).