Stock Market's Meltup Continues

Investors had a quick look at today's economic indicators and concluded that the economy is still growing albeit slowly while inflation is continuing to moderate. The FOMC's next meeting is at the end of July. By then, the committee might conclude that the federal funds rate, currently still at 5.00%-5.25%, might be restrictive enough to get the inflation rate close to 2.0% by 2025 as they projected in their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released after yesterday's FOMC meeting. Today's stats are consistent with their (and our) soft-landing-with-disinflation scenario (SLWD):

(1) Employment. The job market may finally be cooling off. This morning's seasonally adjusted 262,000 jobless claims was unchanged from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading came in above the forecast of 250,000. Initial claims remain at their highest level since October 2021, but still consistent with slower employment growth.