Expecting a Debt Deal

Our good friend Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha is one of the best Washington watchers we know. He has given us permission to share his latest thoughts on the debt ceiling issue with you. His basic message is that this too shall pass. Here are some of his main points from his commentary today:

(1) We think that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will be able to round up fully two-thirds of the House Republican conference in support of the deal he is negotiating with President Biden. Of course, that depends on the terms of the deal, but we expect that McCarthy will be close to two-thirds and maybe even deliver three-fourths of the conference. A two-thirds majority of the conference would mean that McCarthy loses only 74 votes. A three-quarters majority would mean that McCarthy loses only 55.