Sentimental Journey: Mixed Feelings

The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed for the second week to 1.94 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year—after falling the prior two weeks from 1.83 to 1.38 (chart). Bullish sentiment increased for the second week, jumping to 48.6% this week, equaling the end-of-January peak, which was the highest since the end of 2021. Bulls outnumbered bears for the 20th consecutive week. Bearish sentiment fell for the second week to 25.0% this week, after a two-week climb from 24.7% (the fewest bears since January 2022) to 28.8%. Recent readings are well below the 44.1% reading in early October of last year. The correction count dropped 6.0 ppts this week—from 32.4% to 26.4%—remaining well below its late September 2022 peak of 40.3%.

Turning to the AAII Sentiment Survey (as of March 29), bearish sentiment fell but remained above average for the sixth successive week, while both bullish and neutral sentiment moved higher. The percentage expecting stock prices to rise over the next six months moved higher for the second week to 22.5%, after dropping from the prior two weeks from 24.8% to 19.2%—which was the lowest since the September 22, 2022 week’s 17.7% reading.