Young Bull Market?

Last year, we thought that the S&P 500's bear market might have bottomed at 3666 on June 16, when sentiment was as bearish as it was when the index bottomed at 666 on an intraday basis on March 6, 2009. We were wrong. It fell to a new low of 3577 on October 14. We viewed that as a successful retest of the June low.

So far so good. The S&P 500 is up 11.8% since then through today's close. It is still down 16.6% from the record high on January 3, 2022. It is back slightly above its 200-day moving average. This is the fourth attempt by the bulls to keep the rally going above its 200-day moving average. We think this one may succeed.