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There's certainly lots of pessimism about 2023. That's the bad news. We certainly aren't as pessimistic as the consensus seems to be currently. The good news is that the stock market looks ahead by about 12 months. So the outlook for 2024 will matter more and more, while 2023's outcome will matter less and less as next year progresses. We are optimistic about 2024.
The year-ahead outlook for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, and the profit margin has deteriorated since mid-2022. The consensus analysts' weekly forward revenues has held up surprisingly well until it dipped just recently (chart). However, the forward profit margin has narrowed, weighing on forward earnings.
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