Powell's Hawkishness Boosts Bearishness

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference might have signaled his latest pivot, but this time it might be to his peak hawkishness. He said that the Fed will raise interest rates until there is convincing signs that inflation is abating, which hasn't happened so far. There will be no pause along the way and certainly no easing. The terminal federal funds rate in December's FOMC Summary of Economic Projections is likely to be revised higher than the 4.6% shown for 2023 in September's SEP. The 2-year Treasury note yield rose as high as 4.75% this morning.

For contrarians, who like to day trade, the Put/Call Ratio soared to 1.14 yesterday (chart). We think that confirms our view that the latest stock market selloff on Powell's peak hawkishness isn't likely to breach the October 12 low in the S&P 500 of 3577.