The Economic Week Ahead, October 24-28

The Q3 earnings reporting season will get most of the attention this week from equity investors. Fortunately, we all get a break from the "Federal Open Mouth Committee" until November 4! But we will all be thinking about how the FOMC might react to this week's stats.

The most important numbers come out on Friday. Q3's Employment Cost Index is likely to signal a peak in wage inflation, though not a convincing one. A surprise is more likely to be on the upside than the downside given the strength of the labor market. September's PCED will be released along with personal income. Like the month's CPI, the headline inflation rate should be down, while the core is up, but less so because rent has a lower weight in the PCED than in the CPI. October's Consumer Sentiment Index probably rose now that gasoline prices are lower than they were this summer.