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This morning's jobs report for August was a good one even though the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. It did so because 786,000 workers entered the labor force, while the household measure of employment rose 442,000. The new entrants shouldn't have any problem finding jobs, while an increase in job seekers may take the pressure off employers to raise wages to attract workers. Indeed, wage inflation moderated a bit during August to 0.3% from 0.4% in July.
This morning's report is consistent with our "growth recession" outlook, notwithstanding the 315,000 increase in the payroll measure of employment:
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