Mixed Messages From Manufacturing & Housing

July was a good month for manufacturing and a bad one for the housing industry. Industrial production, which is one of the four components of the Index of Coincident Indicators, rose 0.6% m/m to a new record high during July (chart). Housing starts tumbled during the month. Building permits, which is one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, also fell during July.

There's been lots of chatter about a manufacturing recession, but factory output rose 0.7% during July and remains on an uptrend. Motor vehicles and parts output rose 6.6% after a 1.3% fall on the prior month. Auto assemblies were the highest since August 2020. Excluding autos, total industrial output increased 0.3%.