Plenty of Sunshine In Q3's GDPNow & July's CPI

There's lots of sunshine in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. Today's estimate shows that real GDP is rising at a 2.5% pace (saar) during Q3 (table). Consumer spending is tracking at 2.7%. It is looking like an up quarter for capital spending, government outlays, and exports so far. The downers, so far, are residential investment, imports, and the change in private inventories.

This is all based on just a few of the available indicators for Q3. So the estimate will change as others are released. Meanwhile, we won't be surprised if real GDP is eventually revised from down slightly to up slightly during Q1 and Q2. This is shaping up to be a year of slow growth, but no a recession.