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The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now.
The US Treasury bond yield peaked this year (so far) at 3.49% on June 14, falling to 2.67% on Friday. That’s surprising given that inflation remains so high. But we aren’t surprised. As we’ve pointed out before, the bond yield closely tracks the copper/gold price ratio and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (charts below). Both remain bullish for the bond market, with the copper/gold price ratio signaling that the yield should be closer to 2.00%.
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