No Recession In Today's GDP Indicators

Tomorrow's Q2 real GDP report might show a plus sign rather than a minus sign before the quarter's growth rate. That's based on today's economic indicators:(1) Durable goods orders increased 1.9% m/m during June following a 0.8% increase in May. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.5% m/m, the same as during May. Inflation might have boosted these numbers, but at least they are showing that companies continue to spend on capital equipment.(2) The US merchandise trade deficit was $98.2 billion in June, down $5.9 billion from May. Exports rose $4.4 billion, while imports fell $1.5 billion.(3) Retail inventories for June (adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes) rose 2.0% m/m. April was revised from up 1.1% to up 1.6%. Wholesale inventories rose 1.9% in both May and June.