The Economic Week Ahead 7/11/22

Inflation will be in focus on Wednesday, when June's CPI is released. Bloomberg is showing consensus estimates of up 1.1% (8.8% y/y) for the headline and 0.6% (5.8% y/y) for the core inflation rates. Such readings wouldn't clearly signal that inflation has peaked.There will be plenty of other inflation indicators this coming week: NY Fed's June survey of inflationary expectations (Monday), June's NFIB small business survey showing prices-paid and prices-received indexes (Tuesday), June's PPI (Thursday), and June's export & import price indexes (Friday). They also aren't likely to add up to a clear signal that inflation has peaked.Friday will be chock full of business indicators that on balance are likely to confirm that the economy is experiencing a mid-cycle soft patch, which could turn into a mild recession.