S&P 500 Sectors: Latest Performance

Will the Da Vinci Code be right again in calling a major market bottom? The S&P 500 fell to 666 on an intra-day basis on March 6, 2009. That devilish number marked the bottom in the previous bear market. On June 16 of this year, the S&P 500 closed at 3666, down 23.6% from its record high on January 3. That marked the bottom to date in the current bear market. The index is up 6.3% since then and down 18.7% since its January 3 peak.

The recent rally in the S&P 500 has seen a reversal of fortune for the Energy sector: It is still the only S&P 500 sector that is up ytd, by 27.9%, but it is down by 8.1% since June 16. The outperforming sectors since that date include the worst performing ones so far this year. If Da Vinci is wrong—i.e., 3666 wasn’t the S&P 500’s bear-market bottom—then the rebound since June 16 will turn out to be an unsustainable, short-covering rally in a bear market. A break below 3666 could lead to a drop to 3386, the February 19, 2020 record high prior to the pandemic.