The Economic Week Ahead 6/27/22

The week ahead is jam packed with June regional and national economic surveys. They are likely to confirm that we live in stagflationary times. Key consumer indicators are likely to show that Americans are spending less on goods, more on services, and much more on everything because of inflation. More specifically:

(1) Among the biggies will be the national M-PMI on Friday, which is the first day of July. It is likely to be down sharply from May's 56.1, closer to the territory below 50.0 indicative of a contraction. That’s what’s suggested by the three (of five) regional Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) business surveys we have so far for June. On Monday and Tuesday, the other two district FRBs that conduct such surveys, the Dallas and Richmond FRBs, will round out the list. In addition to weakening economic activity, the business surveys are likely to show that supply-chain problems are continuing to abate, while inflationary pressures remain elevated nonetheless.