US Production and LEI Signaling Softish Landing

There was a tiny hint of a manufacturing recession in May's industrial production index, which was reported today. It is one of the four components of the Index of Coincident Economic indicators (CEI). May's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), also reported today, is signaling slower economic growth ahead as well:(1) The LEI, which remains near its recent record high, fell in May by 0.4% for the second month in a row, indicating the economy has slowed in response to high inflation and rising interest rates. As a rule of thumb, three consecutive monthly declines is widely viewed as a strong signal of an impending recession. The LEI has 10 components. The weakest in May were the S&P 500, building permits, and consumer expectations.