Corrections Now & Then

If it turns into a bear market, it will be more reminiscent of the short-lived 1987 bear market, when earnings continued to grow because a recession didn’t occur, as was feared at the time. If a recession does occur because the Fed and/or the Bond Vigilantes cause it to bring inflation down, the bear market could be similar to the ones in the early 1980s. We are still forecasting a 30% chance of a 2022 recession at this time.

Here are a few more stats on this selloff: