Inflation Expectations Jump Off the Chart

(1) "Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased again in March, climbing from 6.0% in February to a new series high of 6.6%."(2) The good news (sort of) was that longer-term inflation expectations over the next three years ticked down to 3.7% from 3.8%, "a decrease driven by respondents with no college education and with annual household incomes under $50,000."(3) The March CPI will be released on Tuesday. The consensus anticipates that the headline and core CPI will be up 1.2% m/m (8.5% y/y) and 0.5% m/m (6.6% y/y). The March headline and core PPI come out on Wednesday and are expected to be up 1.1% m/m (10.6% y/y) and 0.5% m/m (8.4% y/y).(4) Barring more bad luck and policymaking, we expect to see inflation peaking by mid-year.