Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Alphabet Soup
(1) GDP, GDI, EIP, ETFs, HFTs, & UFOs. (2) Pure air and water. (3) Iceland, Ice Age, and the Ice Man. (4) The financial press is going Blodget. (5) BloombergBusiness finds a scary number. (6) A small statistical discrepancy. (7) Consumer incomes and spending growing robustly. (8) The role of ETFs and HFTs in last week’s market mayhem.
Black Hole Theories
(1) Stephen Hawking says there’s a way out of black holes. (2) Bullard Bungee Rebound. (3) We blame HTFs and ETFs for exacerbating the recent unpleasantness in the US stock market. (4) Can stock prices move higher if the central banks have lost their magic powers? (5) Dow Theory and Death Crosses. (6) Our mantra: “USA, USA, USA.” (7) Gasoline windfall literally driving the economy. (8) Dudley and his chums are in a black hole without an exit. (9) Fed’s space-age jargon full of “escape velocity” and “lift off.” (10) Reality is probably distorted in black holes. (11) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Energy industries.
The Iceman Cometh
(1) Albert Edwards is the Iceman. (2) Global freezing. (3) Another 2008 crisis is imminent eventually. (4) Cold summer followed by warm winter for stocks? (5) Blame HFT robots, since most humans are at the beach. (6) It’s good to be plugged in, to front-run everyone else. (7) VIX soars, while Treasury yields meander. (8) Must be getting closer to a bottom for commodities. (9) People say US labor market improving significantly. (10) Transportation activity indicators rolling along.
Retracing the Bullard Bounce
(1) Bullard Bounce without Bullard? (2) From taper tantrum to tightening tantrum. (3) From one-and-done to none-and-done? (4) The famous airplane scene in “Almost Famous.” (5) Maybe commodity prices are near their lows after falling so far over the past year. (6) Maybe the worst is over for non-dollar currencies. (7) Is it too late to panic? (8) The alternatives to stocks are mostly near-zero interest rates. (9) Global economy is chronically weak, but recession still seems unlikely. (10) Forward earnings remain near record highs for S&P 500/600/400.
Bad Break
(1) Another panic attack followed by another relief rally? (2) Or, is this the start of a bear market? (3) Technical picture is very ugly. (4) One of the bull market’s three major concerns rises to the fore. (5) China’s syndrome. (6) Is there a credit crunch out there? (7) Have central banks really run out of ammo? (8) Tough transition or hard landing for China? (9) The IMF’s spin on China. (10) Global recession? (11) No sign of earnings recession so far. (12) Home sweet home. (13) Bye-bye buybacks? (14) “The Man From U.N.C.L.E.” (+)
When Bubbles Burst
(1) Commodity super-cycle latest bubble to burst. (2) Must a recession follow? (3) Junk getting junkier. (4) All-points bulletin from the credit department. (5) Complacent VIX. (6) Near-record high in stock correction camp. (7) Emerging markets have an urge to submerge. (8) That sinking feeling in the commodity pits. (9) What to expect when expected inflation is so low. (10) Gundlach and Kocherlakota voting for “none-anddone.” (11) Housing has solid foundation. (12) Will Millennials be single renters forever? (13) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Materials.
Piecing Together the Margin Puzzle
(1) Lots of S&P 500 data on Q2 revenues, earnings, and margins. (2) Comparing S&P vs. Thomson Reuters earnings composites. (3) The big news was a new high for the S&P 500 profit margin by one measure. (4) Weak oil price and strong dollar aren’t likely to weigh on revenues and earnings next year. (5) Financials, IT, and Utilities profit margins at new highs. (6) Energy and Materials margins down. (7) LargeCap margins consistently exceed SMidCap margins. Why? (7) Small companies tend to be more labor-intensive than large ones. (8) Many may also be losing money.
GDP Growth Is MIA
(1) The demand and supply sides of secular stagnation. (2) Abenomics lost its mojo during Q2. (3) Need to squint to see Eurozone’s growth. (4) China’s many known unknowns. (5) Keqiang index shows weakening Chinese economy. (6) Brazil’s masses protesting the messes. (7) US economy isn’t stagnating, but it isn’t booming either. (8) The Donald Trump of economies. (9) Gatsby has left the building.
Gilded Ages
(1) Back to the future in Newport, RI. (2) Gatsby didn’t sleep here. (3) The “cottages.” (4) Robber Barons, the 1%, and the rest of us. (5) Might inequality be a byproduct of prosperity? (6) Entrepreneurial vs. crony capitalism. (7) Upward revisions in retail sales bullish for Q2 & Q3 GDP. (8) More records for standard of living. (9) Oil and dollar weighing on revenues, but analysts say worst is over. (10) Revenue winners and losers among the S&P 500 sectors. (11) Revisions show NIPA profit margin peaked during Q1-2012. (12) Business sales & GDP and vice versa. (13) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Retail industry.
China’s Critical Mess
(1) Fukushima Syndrome. (2) China’s central bankers and central planners have a credibility problem. (3) Trump dumps on China too. (4) Endgame scenario making a comeback. (5) From critical mess to critical mass. (6) The US is a net winner. (7) Need a magnifying glass to see Eurozone recovery. (8) China has two options. (9) Hold the MSG. (10) Earnings are fine excluding Energy. (11) Upside Q2 earnings surprises aren’t surprising. (12) Another Chinese fire drill at the FOMC?
Shock Without Awe
(1) How do you say “Godot” in Chinese? (2) Another desperate measure for desperate times in China? (3) Professor Copper gives Chinese a big thumbs down. (4) El-Erian makes sense of it all. (5) Not enough growth to go round, so steal some with cheaper currency. (6) Chinese are in good company. (7) Clueless in Beijing. (8) Chinese savings glut fueling massive misallocation of capital. (9) OECD leading indicators turning weaker. (10) Fed’s talking heads talking. (11) One-and-done this year followed by none-and-done next year?
Behind the Curtain
(1) What’s different this time that technicians aren’t seeing? (2) Warren Buffett’s latest deal offsets bearish technical signals. (3) Corporate funds driving bull market more than the investment public. (4) Individual investors mostly on the sidelines. (5) Institutional equity investors (excluding equity funds) are net sellers. (6) Foreigners selling US equities this year. (7) Corporations massively buying shares through buybacks and M&A deals. (8) The wizards behind the curtains in the US and China. (9) Chinese-style QE is sweet and sour. (10) Is greed back in China already? (11) Bad news is good news in China. (12) OPEC no longer the Fed of oil market.
Summer Swoon?
(1) Sinatra was right about the Windy City. (2) Lots of turbulence in the financial markets last week. (3) Technical picture deteriorating. (4) Omens and Death Crosses. (5) Railroads hauling less coal, but with cheaper fuel. (6) Is the bubble bursting in the commodity markets this time? (7) Mixed global picture. (8) German orders are up, led by exports, while Chinese exports remain flat. (9) Known unknown: Will small Fed rate hike have big adverse impact? (10) Yellen will soften the blow. (11) Summer swoon could be buying opportunity. (12) Latest employment reports have same rhythm as previous ones.
We Didn’t Start the Fire
(1) 16,000 fans. (2) Islanders vs. Rangers. (3) Joel & Simon. (4) Headlines as verses. (5) New service. (6) Pieces of the puzzle. (7) Lots of debt in the big picture, and more coming. (8) More can kicking in China and Greece. (9) Companies borrowing lots to buy other companies. (10) Big banks back in the big mortgage business. (11) US economy isn’t on fire.
American Dream or Myth?
(1) Myth, dream, and nightmare. (2) Rich, poor, and balderdash. (3) Widespread prosperity. (4) A misleading indicator of income. (5) Cash and noncash income. (6) The rich are richer, but everyone is better off too on average. (7) Income distribution before vs. after benefits and taxes. (8) Declining percentage of families in households. (9) Fewer people per household. (10) Consumers are doing what they do best. (11) More on the skills gap. (12) Bachelor’s degree not required to work at Starbucks. (13) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 auto-related industries.
Less Misérables
(1) No bargains in US. (2) Plenty of bargains in Greece, but for good reasons. (3) Timing the next bear market and recession. (4) The problem with bear market indicators. (5) The Boom-Bust Barometer sees neither. (6) The Misery Index loves companies. (7) Room for less misery. (8) Will the bear market in commodities trip up secular bull market in stocks? (9) Will China’s next shock-and-awe show be shocking enough to boost commodity prices? (10) Easing on down Silk Road. (11) Italian manufacturing is on the mend. (12) Will one-and-done be followed by a melt-up? (13) Blankfein’s big sniff.
A World of Hurt?
(1) Bronx and Brooklyn cheers. (2) Jared Bernstein to the rescue. (3) Krugman is a man for all seasons. (4) Keynesians are never wrong. (5) Straying from the path. (6) White House shocked that so many jobs require a license. (7) GDP still growing at stall speed. (8) Households are doing well and forming at a faster clip. (9) Some good news under the hood for capital spending. (10) More renters seeking shelter. (11) Nine factors weighing on wages. (12) Global economy continues to stagnate. (13) China’s big snow job. (14) “Mission Impossible--Rogue Nation” (+).
Zen & the Art of Investing
(1) Stocks are calm despite agitated commodities. (2) Why has the Bull/Bear Ratio been trending higher since 2013? (3) Goldman sees a negative feedback loop. (4) The super-cycle hype. (5) Are commodities really an asset class? (6) From the people who brought us BRICs and the GSCI. (7) The surface is calm. (8) Everything you want to know about “Silk Road.” (9) Potentially lots of positive feedbacks. (10) The Zen of freer trade.
Room To Grow?
(1) Curbing enthusiasm on revenues growth. (2) The dollar remains strong, and oil remains weak. (3) Industry analysts still cutting 2015 and 2016 revenue estimates. (4) Weak growth rates. (5) Forward earnings rebounding and diverging from stalling forward revenues. (6) Forward profit margin at record high. (7) Mixed sector picture. (8) On the soft side, again. (9) Odd decline in consumer confidence. (10) Widening gap between job openings and perception of plentiful jobs reflects skills mismatch. (11) Durable goods orders not so durable. (12) Regional surveys lack luster. (13) Focus on major global MSCI stock indexes.
Bad Vibrations
(1) Making the pain go away with more debt. (2) Landy and the Beach Boy. (3) Getting some bad vibrations. (4) Eurozone may be binged-out. (5) China still on borrowing binge. (6) IMF says Japan’s debt is unsustainable. (7) The next Five-Year Plan. (8) Profits are deflating in China. (9) China sneezes. (10) Draghi still waiting for banks to lend to SMEs. (11) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Industrials.
The Great Diversification
(1) Deep in the heart of Texas. (2) Lone Star State has lots of stars. (3) Healthy industrial mix around the country. (4) A long time till the next recession? (5) What might cause the next bust? (6) After the Great Moderation and the Great Recession. (7) Business has learned self-control. (8) Similar to the 1990s with more diversification? (9) Can the US decouple from a global recession? (10) Another round of “shock and awe?” (11) Curbing exuberance.
Build & They Will Come
(1) Is housing’s subpar recovery on a good foundation? (2) Demographic profile still favors renters over owners. (3) Household formation is picking up. (4) More younger and older “selfies.” (5) Getting married later. (6) More renters. (7) Millennials and Gen Xers are stuck. (8) Baby Boomers don’t want to cut the grass. (9) Student loan burden. (10) Affordability and availability of credit still hurdles for would-be homeowners. (11) Field of dreams and nightmares. (12) High-end buildings with sky-high rents. (13) Focus on marketweight-rated S&P 500 housing-related industries.
Challenges for Earnings
(1) The dollar and oil price could weigh on earnings again. (2) Industrial commodity prices may also be signaling trouble for earnings. (3) The Boom-Bust Barometer may be running out of boom. (4) Will rebound in forward earnings move forward? (5) Are Gordon-type models really bullish for valuation? (6) The Buffett ratio is bearish, and it is flawed according to top Wall Street strategist. (7) Most valuation models are flawed for one reason or another. (8) Valuation is subjective.
Reaching for Growth (RFG)
(1) Reaching for yield vs. growth. (2) The most hated asset class is due for a bounce at least. (3) Investment strategist Yellen was right about RFY, wrong about RFG. (4) Reversal of fortune for Utilities, and bonds. (5) The growth-is-scarce scare. (6) No shortage of commodity gluts. (7) China aiming to kick some big cans down Silk Road. (8) Strengthening dollar once again depressing commodity prices. (9) Is gold just another commodity, or a pet rock? (10) Did Opie ever really kick the can down the road? (11) Focus on marketweight-rated S&P 500 Energy industries.
Opie Kicks the Can
(1) The best can kickers on the road. (2) Going fishing on a summer’s day down a country road. (3) Mario and Opie. (4) Between “aw, shucks” and “shock and awe.” (5) Another panic sell-off followed by another relief rally. (6) Marty Zweig’s famous mantra on steroids. (7) Another better-than-expected earnings season, especially ex-Energy. (8) Putting together the pieces of the productivity puzzle. (9) Productivity has a long boom-bust cycle because innovation is lumpy. (10) Our productivity proxies suggest bean counters aren’t counting all the beans in services. (11) The freebie problem. (12) “Mr. Holmes” (+ +).