On US Profits, Consumers & Inflation

With the US economy producing record-breaking earnings and margins, Dr Ed and Elias wouldn’t be surprised to see employment pick up despite AI adoption and other factors holding it back. … They also expect consumer spending to remain resiliently robust even though income growth isn’t keeping up, which is depressing the saving rate. But not even a negative saving rate—which may occur—would tank consumer spending in today’s environment, they maintain. The spending of retired Baby Boomers would keep it afloat. … Also: CPI inflation historically runs higher than PCED inflation; lately, the reverse is true. That’s mostly because rent inflation, which is moderating rapidly, carries more weight in the CPI.