On The Fed, Earnings & India

The FOMC’s annual rotation of voting members will be anything but a routine shuffling of seats this year, Melissa writes. Political pressure from the Oval Office to lower interest rates and the likelihood of a compliant new Fed chair could sow greater policy dissention among members. The new chair could be hard pressed to achieve consensus as Fed officials become more independent. We see no rate moves during the first half of 2026. … Also: Joe suspects that S&P 500 companies’ Q4 earnings growth will pleasantly surprise investors yet again. … And William discusses the formidable challenges faced by India’s economy.