Talking Fed Heads

To cut or not to cut? Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday may hint at which way he’s leaning. The stakes of the FOMC’s September 16-17 meeting decision could hardly be higher: The economic support for a federal funds rate cut is dubious amid a resilient economy, Dr Ed maintains, and unwarranted cutting could invite the Bond Vigilantes, a stock market meltup, and financial system destabilization. Yet the Trump administration is pushing hard for a rate cut, and investors widely expect one. William parses the viewpoints of individual FOMC members and a dovish Trump loyalist who looks likely to be on the committee in September—making at least three rate-cut advocates at the table.